With the nation's health at stake,

Fewer beds taken up than last year, deaths a fraction of the grim forecasts, 95% of fatalities had underlying causes... and how coronavirus facts can be twisted to strike fear in our hearts

With the nation's health at stake, it was revealed this week that GCHQ has embedded a team in Downing Street to provide Boris Johnson with real-time updates to combat the 'emerging and changing threat' posed by Covid-19. How accurate were the Government's grim predictions? The short answer is: not very. In a July report commissioned by Chief Scientific Adviser Sir Patrick Vallance, scientists estimated that there could be 119,000 deaths if a second spike coincided with a peak of winter flu. Yesterday, that figure stood at 54,286 - less than half that. In fact, the second peak seems to have passed - over the past week there has been an average of 22,287 new infections a day, down from 24,430 the week before. In mid-September, Sir Patrick made the terrifying claim that the UK could see 50,000 new coronavirus cases a day by mid-October unless more draconian restrictions were introduced. Yet we have never got near that figure. 

 

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